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Showing posts with label by county. Show all posts
Showing posts with label by county. Show all posts

Saturday, August 21, 2021

Swing Between the 1796 and 1800 Presidential Elections in Maryland

Welcome back to the blog, apologies for the unannounced hiatus.  Today I'm sharing Election Cartography Corner's third swing map, by Twitter user @ElpisActual.  She takes us way back to the early days of the United States republic by mapping the swing in the presidential vote in Maryland from the 1796 presidential election to the 1800 presidential election.

Thanks to President George Washington declining to run after his second term, 1796 was the first time the USA had a contested presidential election, with multiple candidates and parties actually trying to win.  Washington was officially non-partisan, but leaned Federalist, so President John Adams who succeeded him in 1797 continued that party's control of the executive.  Therefore, when President Thomas Jefferson beat Adams in 1800, it was the first time in American history that there was a peaceful transfer of power between two parties.

The map shows dramatic swings, which makes sense given the primordial nature of partisanship at the time, as well as the much smaller voting population.  Maryland as a whole did flip from Federalist in 1796 to Democratic-Republican in 1800.

Saturday, June 5, 2021

Iowa's 1st Congressional District Elections 2018 and 2020. A.K.A. the Rise and Fall of Abby Finkenauer

I think that Representative Abby Finkenauer is one of the most interesting freshman of the 2018 House.  Second youngest woman ever elected to Congress by just under ten months, she never attracted as much media attention, positive or negative, as her classmate Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.  However, her 2018 win was arguably more impressive.

Finkenauer's Iowa House district was based in the southern half of Dubuque, Iowa, which gave her a strong base of support in the 2018 Democratic primary.  However, 15 out of the 20 counties, including Finkenauer's home base of Dubuque County, in Iowa's 1st Congressional District as drawn in the 2010s are "pivot counties", counties that voted for Obama twice then flipped to Trump in 2016.  Democratic enthusiasm was incredibly high in 2018 but Republican enthusiasm nearly met it, making Finkenauer's 16,900 vote win (5.1%) in the swingy 1st District an awesome feat.

These great maps by Twitter user @bob37689044 show how she ended up losing the next cycle:

In her 2018 election against 2-term incumbent Republican Representative Rod Blum, Finkenauer visibly succeeded in keeping the more rural areas of her district competitive, even winning Winneshiek County. Meanwhile, she ran up the votes in the urban and suburban counties of Dubuque, Black Hawk, and Linn.

During a presidential election year, Finkenauer couldn't benefit from the "throw the bums out" effect of a midterm.  She lost ground in Dubuque, while her performance across the rural counties plummeted, including a flip in Winneshiek.  Also, the Republican Party did a good job recruiting a strong challenger in now-Rep. Ashley Hinson, a former news anchor, like Finkenauer an Iowa House member, and a woman of the same generation.

Simply put, Republican turnout went up across the board, and so down went Finkenauer.  However, I'll leave you with this tantalizing bit of gossip: